U.S. to Impose 25 Percent Tariff on Mexican Agricultural Imports Starting Jan. 15, Officials Say

Executive Order Drafted for Jan. 5 Signing

The Trump administration plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on approximately $14.7 billion in Mexican agricultural imports beginning January 15, according to two USCIS officials familiar with the matter and a trade lawyer involved in the case. The policy, set to be announced through an executive order signed at the White House on January 5, represents the most significant trade action tied to immigration enforcement since the administration returned to office in January 2025.

The draft executive order, titled "Protecting American Agriculture and Border Security," directs U.S. Customs and Border Protection to collect the additional duty at ports of entry including Laredo, Texas; Pharr, Texas; and Nogales, Arizona. The tariff would apply to shipments of avocados, tomatoes, berries, peppers, and cucumbers, according to the trade lawyer, who reviewed a near-final version of the document on December 22. The order also directs the Department of Agriculture to establish a 30-day waiver process for importers who can prove their supply chains do not cross migrant staging areas along the Mexican side of the border.

Two USCIS officials said the tariff was developed after a principals committee meeting held on December 22 in Room 350 of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. The meeting began at 10:00 a.m. and lasted roughly 90 minutes, the officials said. Present were representatives from USCIS, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and the National Security Council. The officials said the action is intended to pressure Mexican authorities to dismantle migrant camps in the states of Chiapas and Oaxaca that U.S. intelligence assessments estimate now house more than 40,000 people.

The same officials said the order instructs the State Department to deliver a diplomatic note to the Mexican foreign ministry by January 6. The note will list specific camps near the towns of Tapachula and Arriaga that the U.S. wants closed within 30 days. If Mexico complies, the tariff rate could be reduced to 10 percent by February 15, according to the draft reviewed by the trade lawyer.

Congressional Notification Expected This Week

A congressional aide on the House Judiciary Committee said committee staff were briefed on the plan during a closed-door session on December 23. The aide, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said the administration intends to notify congressional leadership in writing by December 30. The notification will cite authority under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the aide said.

The aide said the tariffs would affect roughly 12 percent of all U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico, which totaled $122.3 billion in 2024 according to Commerce Department figures. Industry groups including the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas and the National Restaurant Association have not yet received formal notice, but the trade lawyer said both organizations were expected to be invited to a stakeholder call scheduled for January 3 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative did not respond to requests for comment on December 27. A spokesman for the Mexican Embassy in Washington declined to comment. The White House press office did not immediately return a message left at 9:15 a.m.

The congressional aide said the House Ways and Means Committee was also likely to receive a separate briefing because the tariff could trigger retaliatory measures under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The aide noted that any formal dispute would first go to USMCA consultation panels, a process that typically takes 90 days. Several Republican members from agricultural districts in Texas, Arizona, and California were expected to raise objections during a House Republican Conference call set for December 29, the aide said.

Two economists at the Agriculture Department have privately estimated that the tariff could add $0.18 to $0.24 to the retail price of an avocado and increase tomato prices by roughly 9 percent during the winter months, according to a memo circulating among agency officials. The memo, dated December 20, was titled "Price Effects of Section 232 Agricultural Measures on Mexican Imports."

What Happens Next

The tariff is scheduled to take effect at 12:01 a.m. on January 15, the two USCIS officials said. Importers who have goods in transit before midnight on January 14 may qualify for a 72-hour grace period if they can produce bills of lading dated before the deadline. The trade lawyer said CBP was preparing a Federal Register notice for publication on January 7 that would detail the Harmonized Tariff Schedule codes affected by the order.

The congressional aide said House Judiciary Committee staff had already drafted a one-page fact sheet for members defending the action as a lawful exercise of trade authority linked to border security. The aide said Senate Finance Committee staff were also expected to receive a briefing by January 2.

Watch for movement at Laredo and Nogales during the first week of January, when CBP is expected to hold drills for port personnel. Also expect at least one major grocery retailer to file a preliminary injunction request in the U.S. Court of International Trade by January 10, the trade lawyer said.

The two USCIS officials said the administration is also considering a parallel action against Mexican steel shipments valued at roughly $6.3 billion, though no final decision had been made as of December 27. That proposal, if approved, would be announced separately by the Commerce Department before the end of January, the officials said.