The Math Nobody Teaches in High School

Let me give you an example from my own life. My plumber — guy named Dale, been doing it since he was nineteen — came out last week to fix a problem with the well pump at my clinic. He was in and out in two hours. The bill was $800. He was apologetic about it. I told him not to be — I saw what he did, and it was worth every penny.

Over coffee afterward, Dale told me he made $187,000 last year. No college debt. No student loans. He started apprenticing at nineteen, got his journeyman license at twenty-two, his master's at twenty-five. By the time his college-bound friends were graduating with $80,000 in debt and sending out resumes, Dale had six years of experience, a truck, and a client list.

He's not the exception anymore. He's the leading indicator.

The Supply-Demand Reality

There are currently 650,000 unfilled construction jobs in America. The average age of a licensed electrician is 54. Plumbers, HVAC technicians, welders — every trade is facing the same demographic cliff. The boomers are retiring, and the pipeline behind them is empty because we spent forty years telling every kid in America that college was the only path to success.

I see this every day in my clinic. When the heating system broke last January, I called three HVAC companies. The earliest appointment was two weeks out. Two weeks in Montana in January. I bought space heaters.

You know what that shortage means for the people who actually have the skills? It means they set their prices. It means they choose their clients. It means they take December off if they want to.

Regulations don't fix HVAC systems. Degrees don't unclog pipes. The market is telling us, as clearly as a market can, that the skilled trades are undervalued and undersupplied. Maybe we should listen.

The College Alternative

A four-year plumbing apprenticeship costs approximately nothing. You earn while you learn. No debt. No student loans. No four years of lost income. By age 22, a plumber is earning $55,000-$75,000. By 30, a licensed master plumber running their own operation can easily clear $150,000.

A four-year degree costs $100,000-$300,000. You graduate at 22 with debt. Average starting salary for a bachelor's degree holder: $55,000. Time to break even on the investment: roughly never, for about 40% of graduates.

I'm not against college. I went to college. But I also know that the guidance counselors who pushed every kid toward a four-year degree did an entire generation a disservice.

The Dignity Question

When my clinic's toilet broke, no algorithm fixed it. No app fixed it. A man with a wrench fixed it. There is dignity in that work. There is also money in it, security in it, and independence in it.

The smart money in 2026 isn't in a degree. It's in a skill. Dale could have told you that twenty years ago. The rest of us are just catching up.